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Strategic Modeling

Resource and economic modeling

Model how a project spends its budget, what it returns in carbon, ecosystem value and local jobs, and how it holds up under pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. Every number is computed from your inputs and the stated assumptions, so the model can sit in front of a funding committee.

Models (Standard v1)

  • Resource allocation analysis

    Split a fixed budget across ranked candidates with minimums, caps and round limits.

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  • Economic impact assessment

    Compare with- and without-intervention scenarios across separate financial, economic, fiscal and regional accounts.

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  • Strategic planning framework

    Lay out milestones, dependencies and decision gates across the horizon.

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Quick estimate (previous model)
Budget allocation100% of 100%
Benchmark 40–65%
Benchmark 8–20%
Benchmark 10–25%
Benchmark 5–15%
Benchmark 5–12%
Economic assumptionsPrefilled for the chosen intervention — override with site data
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Net present valueEUR 2.09MBenefits EUR 2.52M vs costs EUR 427k
Benefit-cost ratio5.9×Discounted payback in year 2
Carbon over horizon560 tEUR 893 per tCO2e
Funding gapEUR 350k30% secured · 3 yr runway
Resource allocation analysis

Where the budget goes

  • Site works & restoration50% · EUR 250k

    Within benchmark. Within the 40–65% benchmark.

  • Monitoring & dMRV15% · EUR 75k

    Within benchmark. Within the 8–20% benchmark.

  • Community & livelihoods15% · EUR 75k

    Within benchmark. Within the 10–25% benchmark.

  • Governance & administration10% · EUR 50k

    Within benchmark. Within the 5–15% benchmark.

  • Contingency10% · EUR 50k

    Within benchmark. Within the 5–12% benchmark.

Shaded band = benchmark range for restoration projects.

Economic impact assessment

Costs, benefits and local economy

Job-years supported9~0.9 FTE on average
Local economic outputEUR 320k
Ecosystem value at maturityEUR 400k/yr
Habitat maturity5 yrsSeagrass restoration
Annual cost and benefit schedule
YearCost vs benefitCosttCO2eBenefit
1EUR 138k14EUR 80k
2EUR 88k28EUR 161k
3EUR 34k42EUR 241k
4EUR 34k56EUR 322k
5EUR 34k70EUR 402k
6EUR 34k70EUR 402k
7EUR 34k70EUR 402k
8EUR 34k70EUR 402k
9EUR 34k70EUR 402k
10EUR 34k70EUR 402k

CostCarbon + ecosystem benefit

Strategic planning frameworks

Scenarios, roadmap and risks

Scenario comparison
ScenarioNPVBCRtCO2eEUR / t
Conservative60% of expected yield, 20% cost overrunEUR 999k2.95×336EUR 1,786
Base caseInputs as enteredEUR 2.09M5.9×560EUR 893
Ambitious130% of expected yield, 5% cost savingEUR 2.87M8.07×728EUR 652
  1. Baseline & permittingYear 1 · EUR 138k
    • Establish the ecological and ocean baseline for the site
    • Secure permits, landholder and community consent
    • Commission monitoring design and install field sensors

    Milestone: Baseline report published and permits in hand

  2. ImplementationYears 2–4 · EUR 156k
    • Restore the full 50 ha footprint
    • Hire and train the local restoration crew
    • Run first dMRV reporting cycle

    Milestone: 50 ha under active restoration

  3. Monitoring & adaptive managementYears 5–9 · EUR 172k
    • Annual dMRV reports against the baseline
    • Replant or adapt where survival falls below target
    • Independent integrity assessment of outcomes

    Milestone: 490 tCO2e cumulative by year 9

  4. Scale & handoverYear 10 · EUR 34k
    • Transfer stewardship to local governance
    • Publish a final transparency report
    • Prepare a replication case for adjacent sites

    Milestone: 560 tCO2e over the horizon and long-term steward in place

Theory of change

  1. InputsEUR 500,000 over 10 years; 0.9 FTE on average.
  2. ActivitiesSeagrass restoration across 50 ha with continuous dMRV.
  3. Outputs50 ha restored; annual dMRV reports; 9 job-years.
  4. Outcomes560 tCO2e sequestered; EUR 320,000 local economic output.
  5. ImpactA self-sustaining habitat worth ~EUR 400,000/yr in ecosystem services.

Risk register

  • Funding gap of EUR 350,000 (70% unsecured)high likelihood · high impact

    Secured funding covers ~3 of 10 years. Stage implementation to the secured runway and pursue blended finance for the remainder.

Recommendations

What to do next

  • Budget allocation sits within every benchmark range — keep it as the baseline plan.
  • Base-case benefits exceed costs (BCR 5.9); lead institutional pitches with the EUR 400,000/yr ecosystem value at maturity.
  • Close the EUR 350,000 gap before the Implementation phase starts in year 2.
  • Run an Audit Services check before approaching funders so disclosure gaps are fixed first.

Assumptions used

  • Sequestration 1.4 tCO2e/ha/yr at maturity, reached after 5 years (linear ramp).
  • Ecosystem-service value EUR 8,000/ha/yr at maturity.
  • Carbon valued at EUR 35/tCO2e; discount rate 4%.
  • 18 job-years per EUR 1M spent; local multiplier 1.6× on the 40% spent locally.
  • Site-works spend is front-loaded (45% year 1, 25% year 2); other lines are spread evenly.
  • Screening estimates for planning, not verified removals or a valuation opinion.
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